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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor follows a straightforward script. It frequently acts as a type of apology. Our apologies we misjudged your squad in our preseason projections.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who orchestrated the most dramatic improvement is handed the award. In reality, it sparks an yearly argument about expectations and whether we're actually honoring excellent coaching or simply the biggest shock.

However the current competition is distinctly different. The list of nominees is unusually deep. It has been the season of resurgences. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning conference winners falling away and recent also-rans improving in unison. Under an ordinary season, a coach leading the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in such a turbulent and fun year, he's facing multiple other elite candidates.

Below is how the projected ballot could be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors love quarterbacks. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal system, Williams has been given the chance to showcase his special ability. From Week 9, the Bears rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's prolonged performance. Under Johnson, Williams has become increasingly decisive, less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan rather than going rogue. It is an attack designed solely in Johnson's image: a physical run game, a heavy helping of play-action and a creative aerial game that springs wide-open receivers everywhere. The QB has thrived. And when easy reads weren't there, he's been capable to create magic out of nothing.

The coach came to Chicago with a defined offensive philosophy. Virtually each bet – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the tight ends, turning Williams into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. That's rare for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who walked into the organization with the immense pressure he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, he has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a offensive wizard but the kind of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

During a normal year, he would be the overwhelming favorite. But this isn't a typical campaign!

Where his candidacy runs slightly unstuck is on defense. The Bears presently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on takeaways, and turnovers are famously fickle. Defensive minds can focus on ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. With a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several wins behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is in place for sustained success. But Johnson comes up just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has orchestrated a rapid turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall football of his career. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, he has excelled at the intangibles stuff, which was not a certainty after his initial press conference appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed their staff with the ideal staff mix of youth and veteran savvy, he hired newbies. From the leader on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That type of setup is intriguing on paper, but often collapses in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a their job in real-time. But he has managed to bring everyone and all elements together.

Following an early strong beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would go off the track. A mid-year setback had the Jags stumbling again. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Instead, he simplified things. The offense stopped pursuing home-run plays and started seeking sustainable ones. The coach refocused the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The results are obvious. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. Coen gets the slightest deduction in the rankings because he took over a skilled team, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year case has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback choice.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a new quarterback and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator could have ended the campaign in October. Rather, it defined it. By the middle point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has regressed since that time, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, placing him only a single place ahead of other QBs.

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